Latest Posts by envirographs - Page 5

The significance of the Berkley Earth Surface Temperature study is that it was performed by prominent climate change skeptic Richard Muller. Prior to this study, Dr. Muller was a leading voice of climate change skepticism, casting doubt on both the idea that the earth is warming, and that humans are the cause. The land surface temperature trend (previous graph) led Muller to conclude that the earth is warming. 

Muller then studied issues raised by skeptics, such as possible biases from urban heating, data selection, poor station quality, and data adjustment. He concluded that these do not unduly bias the results. He further concluded that many of the changes in land-surface temperature can be explained by a combination of volcanoes and a proxy for human greenhouse gas emissions. Solar variation does not seem to impact the temperature trend.  Muller demonstrated that the upward temperature trend is likely to be an indication of anthropogenic changes, namely carbon dioxide emissions.

These results led Muller to announce in a NY Times Op-Ed that his research shows the earth is warming and that "humans are almost entirely the cause", referring to himself as a converted climate change skeptic.

The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature study just released an analysis of land-surface temperature records going back 250 years, about 100 years further than previous studies. The analysis shows that the rise in average world land temperature was approximately 1.5 degrees C in the past 250 years, and about 0.9 degrees in the past 50 years. This graph displays decadal average land surface temperatures reported from multiple sources.

A recent report from the Energy Information Administration found that U.S. plant owners and operators are getting ready to retire 27 gigawatts’ worth of coal generation, or about 8.5 percent of the coal fleet, between now and 2016. Considering the substantial contribution of burning coal to climate change, coal plant retirements are one of the greatest ways to reduce carbon emissions.

Ongoing drought conditions have the prompted the U.S. Agriculture Department to declare a federal disaster area in more than 1,000 counties covering 26 states. That's almost one-third of all the counties in the United States, making it the largest disaster declaration ever made by the USDA. The result is skyrocketing corn, wheat and soybean prices.

This graph is pretty self-explanatory. See the article from the Atlantic for further explanation of why natural gas is overtaking coal.

Extent of surface melt over Greenland’s ice sheet on July 8 (left) and July 12 (right). Measurements from three satellites showed that on July 8, about 40 percent of the ice sheet had undergone thawing at or near the surface. In just a few days, the melting had dramatically accelerated and an estimated 97 percent of the ice sheet surface had thawed by July 12.

On average in the summer, about half of the surface of Greenland's ice sheet naturally melts. But this year the extent of ice melting at or near the surface jumped dramatically. According to satellite data, an estimated 97 percent of the ice sheet surface thawed at some point in mid-July, a larger area than at any time in more than 30 years of satellite observations. This extreme melt event coincided with an unusually strong ridge of warm air, or a heat dome, over Greenland. The ridge was one of a series that has dominated Greenland's weather since the end of May

Water stress in the Middle East and North Africa. Of the 16 nations worldwide suffering extreme water stress, all are in this region. Bahrain tops the list of those using far more water than they sustainably receive. In a region prone to conflict and civil unrest, and experiencing rapid population growth, water stress could fuel greater conflict.

Predicted land change along the Louisiana coast over the next 50 years if we do nothing more than we have done to date. Red indicates areas likely to be lost, and green indicates areas of new land. This map is based on assumptions about increases in sea level rise, subsidence, and other factors.

The global rise in mean sea level is complicated in the Mississippi River Delta region by subsidence (sinking land). The Gulf of Mexico has one of the highest rates of subsidence in the nation due to sediment compaction and the extraction of groundwater, oil and natural gas. Restoration of the deltaic system can help stabilize shorelines and reduce the associated risks with rising sea levels. Deltas are formed by the constant inflow of sediment from rivers. However, the Mississippi River Delta has been cut off from this natural process through the construction of extensive levee systems for navigation and flood protection. Through planned sediment diversions, the natural deltaic process can be restored and help increase the resiliency of coastal areas.

From the International Energy Agency:

Global carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil-fuel combustion reached a record high of 31.6 gigatonnes (Gt) in 2011, according to preliminary estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA). This represents an increase of 1.0 Gt on 2010, or 3.2%. Coal accounted for 45% of total energy-related CO2 emissions in 2011, followed by oil (35%) and natural gas (20%).

National temperature data, collected since 1895, shows 2012 will shatter the previous record for the warmest spring. The previous record spring in 1910 had a national average temperature of 55.1°. However, the March 2012 temperature exceeded March 1910 by 0.5° to set a new record for the month. April 2012 then exceeded April 1910 by 1°. Also worth noting that 4 of the previous 10 record warmest springs have occurred the 21st century.

The most recent Living Planet Report (May 2012), compiled by the Zoological Society of London, examined more species (2,600) and more populations of those species (9,014) than ever before. Overall, these populations show a decline of about 30% since 1970. Tropical species (light green) show a decline of more than 60%, while in temperate regions (dark green) there has been an average recovery of about 30%. The worst affected species are those in tropical lakes and rivers, whose numbers have fallen by 70% since 1970.

From the Washington Post:

Map from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showing how much electricity each state gets from wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal. Maine was the clear winner in 2011, getting 27 percent of its electricity coming from renewable sources — a lot of it wind power and biomass. But Maine had a lot of renewable energy back in 2001, too. South Dakota and Iowa, at 21 percent and 17 percent, have seen far more impressive growth. Both of those states got almost none of their electricity from renewable sources a decade ago.

In the U.S., clean energy and carbon pollution regulation are very popular. What is the disconnect between public opinion on these issues, and Federal actions?

From the Washington Post:

"There are two ways to think about the cost of energy. There’s the dollar amount that shows up on our utility bills or at the pump. And then there’s the “social cost” — all the adverse consequences that various energy sources... end up foisting on the public."

"The blue bars represent the current market cost of various energy sources. On top of that, Greenstone and Looney have added estimated health damages from air pollution (the purple bar), as well as the cost of climate-changing carbon emissions that come with burning fossil fuels (the gray bar)."

"At the end of the paper, Greenstone and Looney argue that the government should put a price on the social costs of fossil fuels — either through a cap on emissions or a tax. “If firms and consumers faced the full cost of their energy use,” they write, “they would have a greater incentive to make more-informed and socially efficient decisions about energy consumption.”"

The American Lung Association released its 2012 "State of the Air" report. Among their findings, they report that the air quality in many places has improved, but that over 127 million people—41 percent of the U.S.—still suffer pollution levels that are too often dangerous to breathe. The report includes this graph from EPA, showing that emissions of the six common air pollutants have fallen 59% since 1990 as a result of Clean Air Act regulations. These reductions have occurred even as population, energy consumption, vehicle miles traveled and GDP have increased, debunking the myth that environmental regulations hurt economic growth.

*The "six common pollutants" are fine particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), carbon monoxide (CO), and lead.

When thinking of ways to make renewable energy cost-competitive with fossil fuels, an important consideration are the market distortions caused by substantial government subsidies to fossil fuels versus subsidies to renewable energy. De-carbonizing the global energy sector will require removing subsidies for fossil fuels.

Numbers from http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-13/sustainability-indicator-130-billion-pints-of-beer.html

Wetlands losses and gains for different land use categories. While, historically, agriculture was responsible for the vast majority of wetlands losses, government incentive programs like the Wetlands Reserve Program have encouraged farmers to restore former wetlands on their lands, contributing to a net gain of wetlands from the agriculture sector 2004-2009. In contrast, silviculture (forestry) is contributing heavily to wetlands losses, with urban and rural development also destroying wetlands. Urban and rural development combined accounted for 23 percent of the wetland losses 2004-2009, while silviculture accounted for 56% (a decrease from 1998-2004 for urban and rural development and an increase for silviculture).

*"Other" included areas such as native prairie, un-managed forests, scrub lands, barren and abandoned land, lands enrolled in conservation easements or other lands designated as wildlife management areas. Conservation programs are largely responsible for high wetlands gains from these areas.

Average annual net loss and gain of wetlands in the lower 48 states of the U.S. Wetlands protection regulations (such as those under the Clean Water Act 404), incentive programs (such as the Wetlands Reserve Program) and disincentive programs (such as the Swampbuster provision of the Food Security Act of 1985) have substantially reduced wetlands losses.

While the coal industry is fighting Clean Water Act protections for rivers and streams from mountaintop removal mining (MTR), this 2011 poll of residents in Kentucky, Virginia, West Virginia and Tennessee found strong support.

Other interesting results:

57% of voters oppose MTR; 20% support

64% of Democrats, 60% of independents and 51% of Republicans oppose MTR

While coal companies claim prohibition of or restrictions on mountaintop removal mining (MTR) will hurt rural Appalachian economies, this figure suggests MTR is failing to lift rural communities out of poverty. Considering MTR destroys the land, degrading property values and tourism, and imposes health costs on nearby residents, it is more likely MTR is hurting rural Appalachian economies far more than any attempts to stop it.

Let's look at the false choice too often portrayed in the media and by politicians of jobs vs. the environment in the context of mountaintop removal mining (MTR). Coal companies claim that any efforts to stop or restrict MTR will cost jobs and devastate economies in Appalachia. Yet, the graph above shows that as coal production has increased, employment of coal miners has decreased. This is because MTR replaces coal miners with big machinery and explosives. The reason coal companies like it is because it increases profits, in part by decreasing labor costs. Thus, it is MTR, not efforts to protect the environment by restricting MTR, that is destroying jobs in the mountains of Appalachia

On the two year anniversary of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, it's worth putting the size of that spill into context. By the time it was capped on July 15, 2010, the well had released 4.9 million barrels of oil into the Gulf, making it the largest accidental oil spill in history.

Meanwhile, as coal's share of U.S. electricity production declines, wind power capacity has been increasing. By the end of 2010, total wind power capacity exceeded 40,000 megawatts, representing a cumulative investment total of $78 billion since the beginning of the 1980s.

*the slowed growth observed in 2010 is attributed to the delayed impact of the global financial crisis (which impacted the apparent availability of capital for 2010 projects that were being planned in 2009), low natural gas prices and a lower overall demand for energy

Coal's share of U.S. electricity generation has been steadily declining, a result of market forces, particularly the low price of natural gas and the expense of building new coal plants. Since throughout its life cycle coal is arguably our dirtiest fuel source (from mountaintop removal mining, to mercury and air toxics released during combustion, to carbon emissions, to hazardous coal ash), a move away from reliance on coal benefits public health, the environment and the climate.

Graph showing carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere over the past 650,000 years. Concentrations are measured by examining trapped air bubbles in prehistoric ice cores. The graph shows current CO2 levels at an unprecedented high level in the atmosphere, far greater than during past natural climate cycles. A rapid increase is observed since the industrial revolution, highlighting the contribution of the burning of fossil fuels.

The species groups that are proportionally most in danger (the proportion of species within that grouping that are imperiled) are overwhelmingly freshwater species. Freshwater mussels, crayfishes, stoneflies (stonefly larvae live in freshwater), freshwater fishes and amphibians are the most at risk. This demonstrates the substantial need for a focus on conservation of freshwater habitats.

"Hotspot watersheds" with 10 or more at-risk fish and mussel species are concentrated in the Southeastern United States.  This reflects both the freshwater diversity of rivers and streams in this region, and the significant conservation threats.

Glacier area on Mount Kilimanjaro on the Kenya/Tanzania border in East Africa decreased 85% 1912-2007; from 12.06km2 to 1.85km2. While the loss of glaciers in temperate regions (such as those in the U.S.) has been attributed to warming temperatures from climate change, glacier loss on Kilimanjaro is more likely a result of a local climate change in East Africa that occurred in the late 1800s, resulting in a drier climate. However, causes of the dramatic glacier loss remain largely unknown.

Source: Thompson, L. G., Hardy, D. R., Mark, B. G., Brecher, H. H., & Mosley-Thompson, E. (2009). Glacier loss on Kilimanjaro continues unabated. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 106(47), 19770-19775.

Based on a survey of 144 climate change economists performed by the Institute for Policy Integrity at the New York University School of Law, response to: "Placing a “price on carbon” through a tax or cap‐and‐trade system will increase incentives for energy efficiency and the development of lower carbon energy production."

Other interesting results:

84% agreed or strongly agreed that “the environmental effects of greenhouse gas emissions... create significant risks to important sectors of the United States and global economies.”

91.6% preferred or strongly preferred “market‐based mechanisms, such as a carbon tax or cap‐and‐trade system” over command‐and‐control regulation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Acid rain (wet sulfate deposition = sulfuric acid rain) before (89-91) and after (07-09) the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, which used a cap & trade program to limit sulfur dioxide emissions. For anyone who has any doubt that environmental regulations can work...